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Dec 4, 2012
12/12
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china is okay. a lot of talk some institutional people might begin selling at this point because certainly retail investors in the u.s. are definitely buying the gold through the gld right now. the fiscal cliff very quickly here because the general consensus outlines of a deal out there. i know it doesn't sound that way. they're far apart. blah-blah. here is the idea. elements are emerging, folks, higher tax rates. nobody down here doesn't think there isn't going to be. if it's not 39% for the top 2%, it'll be 38%. some kind of compromise in the a area. the bad news and i've said this several times, the era of american austerity is beginning now and everybody is starting to realize that. the question is what's it going to look like? the good news is it's likely to be a gentle austerity, if i can say that, in 2013 and probably 2014 depending on the spending cuts. and there will be some cushion. the fed likely will continue its q/e program. they'll likely continue that during their meeting on december
china is okay. a lot of talk some institutional people might begin selling at this point because certainly retail investors in the u.s. are definitely buying the gold through the gld right now. the fiscal cliff very quickly here because the general consensus outlines of a deal out there. i know it doesn't sound that way. they're far apart. blah-blah. here is the idea. elements are emerging, folks, higher tax rates. nobody down here doesn't think there isn't going to be. if it's not 39% for the...
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Dec 14, 2012
12/12
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and china, they played hard ball in china. anybody who has played hardball in china has not succeeded. like google. first amendment, you know, tiananmen square. what's the first amendment in china, i don't think it's free speech. >> i don't think so. >> interstate commerce is as powerful as anything. >> tear down a neighborhood at any moment. >> another $156 million shares eligible for social, the social network rallied after last month's expiration and shares up 25% since the middle of november. november 14th, we went into it thinking we'd get hurt. it ended up 12.6% that day, up 250. >> it did decline prior to that, in anticipation of the expiration. >> after a big run. it's got to digest. again, this is an interest per share situation. things are done at facebook that would justify the stock going higher. the short base was gigantic. do you sense a big run? >> i think the dynamic did change after the last quarter. and the discussion you talked about, we talked about it a great deal, what the trends really appeared to be in
and china, they played hard ball in china. anybody who has played hardball in china has not succeeded. like google. first amendment, you know, tiananmen square. what's the first amendment in china, i don't think it's free speech. >> i don't think so. >> interstate commerce is as powerful as anything. >> tear down a neighborhood at any moment. >> another $156 million shares eligible for social, the social network rallied after last month's expiration and shares up 25%...
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199
Dec 18, 2012
12/12
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you've been to china a lot in recent week. we keep trying to make sense of the data that comes in from china overnight. some of the industrial production numbers. >> remember, we have 16 businesses in china. i spent a lot of my time over there and we've got a great asian presence overall. so what are we seeing? one, exports are slowing and dramatic to europe. that's a structural fen phenomena. the second major market is real estate and my assumption is that they don't want real estate to go up too much and they can't have it go down too much because it will hurt the bank. so we're in a holding pattern. they are looking to liberalize the overall economy. you've seen the stock market rally. that's based on the assumption that growth is stabilizing and, more importantly, i think the new administration is going to try to do liberalize and the message is, don't expect us to lower rates to try to reduce growth. that's what they did in the past that created bubbles and issues. i think what they are going to try to quietly do is stabi
you've been to china a lot in recent week. we keep trying to make sense of the data that comes in from china overnight. some of the industrial production numbers. >> remember, we have 16 businesses in china. i spent a lot of my time over there and we've got a great asian presence overall. so what are we seeing? one, exports are slowing and dramatic to europe. that's a structural fen phenomena. the second major market is real estate and my assumption is that they don't want real estate to...
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Dec 17, 2012
12/12
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you mentioned the copper, the china plays. the comments. the caterpillars of the world. >> remember when ets, used to buy the actual commodity, i don't know how much, but i do see there's a lot of things that tell me that it indicates maybe we reverse. i don't like big up monday openings. i feel like they often tend to fool people. the empire was not good. it's mixed here. it's just definitively mixed. we're thirsty for those earnings. oracle could be big. ge analysts' meetings could be big. >> it is expected to give guidance for 2013. there's a 2:00 p.m. eastern time conference call, i believe, associated with that. so we may be learning some things in terms of at least our expectations next year from ge. increased its dividend last week, that not that long ago during the financial crisis was cut. rather substantially. over the last year, ge capital has begun paying a dividend yet again to its parent ge. and so it will be interesting to hear. we should point out ge still owns 49% as well as universal. >> ge made a major move. into oil and
you mentioned the copper, the china plays. the comments. the caterpillars of the world. >> remember when ets, used to buy the actual commodity, i don't know how much, but i do see there's a lot of things that tell me that it indicates maybe we reverse. i don't like big up monday openings. i feel like they often tend to fool people. the empire was not good. it's mixed here. it's just definitively mixed. we're thirsty for those earnings. oracle could be big. ge analysts' meetings could be...
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Dec 19, 2012
12/12
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china coming back. gm rationalizing europe. >> gm europe, when you say a couple quarters behind ford, are you saying progress in the quarterly financials? >> committed to rationalizing europe. >> again, a larger theme of excess capitalization at u.s. corporations, and the fact that so much money is sitting on balance sheets doing nothing. >> did you read oracle? how much money do they have. they bought back 10 billion worth of stock. these companies, you read through their stories, and you say, not only did they not extend themselves during this downturn, they conserved a lot of cash. by the way, humans did, too, in america. have you seen the numbers that the federal reserve put out last night about how much money is being -- how little debt is being taken down by citizens. we're back to levels of the '90s. federal household debt service came out last night. the percentage of disposable income is 14%, down to 10%. that's 1994 levels. >> that's a big part of morgan stanley's call on citi today. from over
china coming back. gm rationalizing europe. >> gm europe, when you say a couple quarters behind ford, are you saying progress in the quarterly financials? >> committed to rationalizing europe. >> again, a larger theme of excess capitalization at u.s. corporations, and the fact that so much money is sitting on balance sheets doing nothing. >> did you read oracle? how much money do they have. they bought back 10 billion worth of stock. these companies, you read through...
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143
Dec 21, 2012
12/12
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china not as bad as we though, u.s. very strong. so nike, if it goes back to 97, it means we're going to have a real bad couple of days in my view. look at red hat. red hat is a technology company that is deeply involved in the cloud. they, too, had a better than expected number, as did oracle in the cloud. so these are my two tales for the trading today, david. if you pick the best of the best and they go down, you'll really have a couple of -- >> when it comes to the so-called cloud play and the use of it in the competition here, is that one of the key names? >> yes, it allows you to manage cloud in a cheap -- an anti-microsoft business. their partner is sales force.com. i'm really using these as tells. in other words, these are the ones where there's natural buyers. as we just found out how good things are. it wasn't like we found out a month ago. we just found out last night. if they have resilience, the market is going to be more resilient than people think. if they give up the ghost, i think next week's going to be difficult,
china not as bad as we though, u.s. very strong. so nike, if it goes back to 97, it means we're going to have a real bad couple of days in my view. look at red hat. red hat is a technology company that is deeply involved in the cloud. they, too, had a better than expected number, as did oracle in the cloud. so these are my two tales for the trading today, david. if you pick the best of the best and they go down, you'll really have a couple of -- >> when it comes to the so-called cloud...
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Dec 20, 2012
12/12
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do they have carried interest thing in china? >> all carried interest. >> the whole country is carried interest. >> all state-owned enterprise carried interest. >> retail, jim, is among the laggards today. bed bath the worst performer. mentioned that earlier. kohl's, macy's, target, penne, game stop, nordstrom. des started off a little soft. if claims spike up a bit, maybe the month doesn't end the way some people wish it had. >> gift cliff, way too warm, natural gas, what was the statistic you gave, an anti-retail statistic. >> about new york city? >> yeah. >> 2012 on track to be the warmest on record. average temp, i think 57. 57 degrees. >> i don't wear north face when it is 57. >> our ugg boots. >> i think north face -- >> i don't wear ugg boots in any season. >> but do you have a combination of sandy taking out a lot of november, warm weather, what i call the gift cliff, falling off the gift cliff. we need some cold weather between now and next week. just -- >> coat sales? >> no, because clothing sales, remember if you are a
do they have carried interest thing in china? >> all carried interest. >> the whole country is carried interest. >> all state-owned enterprise carried interest. >> retail, jim, is among the laggards today. bed bath the worst performer. mentioned that earlier. kohl's, macy's, target, penne, game stop, nordstrom. des started off a little soft. if claims spike up a bit, maybe the month doesn't end the way some people wish it had. >> gift cliff, way too warm, natural...